More than 30,000 people a year in England and Wales could die from heat-related causes by the 2070s, scientists have warned.

A new study estimates that heat-related mortality could increase more than fiftyfold over the next 50 years due to climate change. Researchers at University College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine assessed various scenarios, taking into account levels of global warming, the extent of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts, regional climate variations, potential power failures, and demographic changes, including an ageing population.

Between 1981 and 2021, England and Wales recorded an average of 634 heat-related deaths annually. The research, published in PLOS Climate, found that in a worst-case scenario — involving 4.3°C of warming by the end of the century and minimal adaptation — heat-related deaths would rise sixteenfold to 10,317 per year by the 2050s, and surpass 34,000 annually by the 2070s.

Even in a scenario with just 1.6°C of warming and high levels of adaptation, the number of annual heat-related deaths is still projected to rise up to sixfold by the 2070s.

The extreme heat of summer 2022 — when temperatures reached a record 40.3°C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire — resulted in 2,985 excess heat-related deaths, pointing to a possible “new normal” by as early as the 2050s, according to the study.

These findings come as the UK Health Security Agency has issued a yellow heat health alert for all regions from Thursday 10 July until Tuesday 15 July. Temperatures were expected to reach 27–29°C across much of England and Wales on Thursday, with highs of 31–33°C forecast over the weekend.

Dr Clare Heaviside, senior author and academic at UCL Bartlett School of Environment, Energy & Resources, said the findings presented “a sobering picture of the consequences of climate change”.

“Over the next 50 years,” she said, “the health impacts of a warming climate are going to be significant. We can mitigate their severity by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and with carefully planned adaptations, but we have to start now.”

The study also revealed that previous assessments underestimated the risks of heat-related mortality by failing to consider the effects of an ageing population. Over the next five decades, the population of England and Wales is predicted to age significantly, with the largest increase in those aged 65 and over projected for the 2060s.

Older individuals are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat, and it is estimated that an additional 250 million people worldwide aged 69 or older will be exposed to dangerous heat levels by 2050.

Dr Rebecca Cole, lead author and researcher at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said the findings highlight the pressing need for thorough planning to reduce the impact of global heating.

“Increases in heat-related deaths are not just a consequence of rising temperatures – they’re also driven by how we build our cities, care for vulnerable populations and address social inequality. Concerted adaptation strategies are required, well in excess of those over the last 30 years.”

Responding to the findings, Matthew Bazeley-Bell, the deputy chief executive of the Royal Society for Public Health, said: “Our health is strongly influenced by the environment and the climate crisis is also a public health crisis. These alarming projections show a devastating impact.

“We need to take action that curbs emissions and also prepare people to deal with the effects of climate change on our health – particularly for vulnerable populations.”

Dr Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the University of Reading, said: “If floods and storms are the loud alarms of climate change, extreme heat is its silent killer. It is disproportionately lethal, often going unnoticed until it’s too late. With another heatwave bearing down on the UK, this warning feels more urgent than ever.

“Heat is not only claiming more lives, but power outages and an ageing population could make things far worse if adaptation doesn’t keep pace.

“As the UK experiences fewer cold extremes and more frequent and deadly heatwaves, protecting older adults must be at the heart of climate and public health planning – before this silent threat becomes an undeniable crisis.”

Dr Raquel Nunes, Assistant Professor in Health and Environment at the University of Warwick, added that the increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves underline the urgent need for protective measures to be put in place.

“Heat-related deaths and illnesses are both preventable and avoidable,” she said, adding that they “expose systemic failures” that require “socially inclusive and institutionally embedded adaptation across governance, infrastructure, and health and care services to prevent increasing vulnerabilities and inequalities”.

Prof Lea Berrang Ford, the head of the UK Health Security Agency’s Centre for Climate and Health Security, said: “The relationship between periods of hot weather and increased mortality is well-established and temperatures are likely to increase until at least mid-century, irrespective of the amount by which we decarbonise in the decades to come.

“The health decisions we make today will determine the severity and extent of climate inherited by future generations, and so it’s vital we take action.

“UKHSA continues to develop its guidance and evidence, working with partners to protect the most vulnerable in our society who are most likely to feel the impacts of hot weather.’’

 

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