“Super-tipping points” may initiate a climate action chain reaction.

Experts assert that quick reductions in emissions could be achieved by making small changes to electric vehicles and plant-based meat.

According to a report, a chain reaction of decarbonisation across the global economy could be triggered by three “super-tipping points” for climate action.

According to the experts, unstoppable expansion in the fields of plant-based meat substitutes, green fertilisers, and electric cars would result from relatively insignificant policy interventions.

However, the important repercussions for energy storage and aviation would follow from the boost to battery and hydrogen production.

Experts say that the super-tipping points are the quickest way to drive global action and offer “plausible hope” that a rapid transition to a green economy can occur in time to prevent irreversible climate breakdown.

When a zero-carbon option becomes more competitive than the current high-carbon option, these are the tipping points. Product prices drop as a result of more sales, resulting in feedback loops that fuel rapid expansion and takeover. The three super-tipping points, according to the report, which was unveiled at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, would reduce emissions in sectors accounting for 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

To prevent the climate system from reaching catastrophic tipping points, swift action is essential. Recently, scientists stated that global warming had brought the world to the brink of multiple tipping points with global consequences, such as the melting of Greenland’s ice cap and a crucial north Atlantic current.

“With time running out, there is a need for action to be targeted,” said Mark Meldrum, at the consultancy Systemiq, which produced the report with partners including the University of Exeter, UK. Each super-tipping point crossed raises the chance of crossing others, he said. “That could set off a cascade to steer us away from a climate catastrophe.”

According to the report, sales of electric vehicles are rapidly approaching the tipping point. The report adds that further growth is driven by setting dates for when fossil-fuel-powered vehicles will no longer be sold, such as 2030 in the UK for new vehicles and 2035 in China.

As a result of this scale-up, the used batteries will become less expensive and can be used as storage for wind and solar power, thereby further accelerating the expansion of renewable energy sources. Heat pumps are even more cost-effective because green energy means lower electricity costs.

Mandating green fertilisers to replace current fertilisers made from fossil gas is the second super-tipping point. Ammonia is a crucial component that can be produced by combining nitrogen from the air with hydrogen produced by renewable energy sources.

According to the report, scale-up and cost reductions in the production of green hydrogen will be driven by governments requiring a growing proportion of fertiliser to be green. Then, long-distance aviation and shipping, as well as steel production, which will use hydrogen to reduce carbon emissions, are supported. Mandates are being considered, with India, for instance, aiming to produce 5 percent green fertiliser by 2023–24 and 20 percent by 2027–28.

Helping alternative proteins beat animal-based proteins in price while at least matching them in taste is the third super-tipping point. About 15% of global emissions are caused by meat and dairy. According to the report, government departments, schools, and hospitals could use public procurement of plant-based meat and dairy substitutes as a powerful lever.

Increasing uptake would reduce cattle emissions and forest destruction for pasture land. A 20 percent market share by 2035 would eliminate the need for 400 million to 800 million hectares of land, or 7 to 15 percent of the world’s farmland today, for livestock and their feed. After that, that land could be used to restore wildlife and forests, thereby removing CO2 from the air.

Norway’s sales of electric cars and the decline in coal-powered electricity in the United States over the past decade are two examples of countries that have already reached tipping points.

“We need to find and trigger positive socioeconomic tipping points if we are to limit the risk from damaging climate tipping points,” said Prof Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter. “This non-linear way of thinking about the climate problem gives plausible grounds for hope: the more that gets invested in socioeconomic transformation, the faster it will unfold – getting the world to net zero greenhouse gas emissions sooner.”

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