Tropical Forest Loss Reaches Record High in 2024, Raising Alarm Over Climate Resilience

The world’s tropical forests—vital carbon sinks that help buffer the planet against climate change—vanished at a record rate in 2024, according to new satellite data.

Researchers estimate that approximately 67,000 square kilometres (26,000 square miles) of intact, old-growth tropical forest were lost last year—an area nearly the size of the Republic of Ireland, or the equivalent of 18 football fields every minute.

For the first time on record, wildfires overtook agricultural expansion as the leading driver of this loss, with the Amazon rainforest suffering the most, amid unprecedented drought conditions.

There were some encouraging developments, however, particularly in Southeast Asia, where strengthened government policies helped slow deforestation.

Tropical rainforests store hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon in their soil and biomass. But this new peak in forest loss casts further doubt on their long-term resilience in a warming world. Scientists warn that some areas, including parts of the Amazon, may be nearing a “tipping point”—a threshold beyond which forests could enter an irreversible decline.

Professor Hansen, a leading researcher, called the findings “frightening” and warned of potential “savannisation” of tropical rainforests—a process where lush, old-growth ecosystems degrade and shift into drier, grassland-like environments.

“It’s still a theory, but I think that that’s more and more plausible looking at the data.”

A separate study published last week echoed these concerns, warning that if global warming exceeds the 1.5°C limit set by international agreements, vast areas of the Amazon could undergo dramatic dieback. This would not only devastate biodiversity in one of Earth’s richest habitats, but also significantly worsen the global climate crisis.

Once a powerful carbon sink, the Amazon has in recent years started releasing more carbon than it absorbs due to widespread burning. These fires emit vast amounts of CO₂, intensifying global warming rather than helping to mitigate it.

The 2023–2024 period marked the Amazon’s most severe drought on record, driven by a combination of human-induced climate change and the natural El Niño weather pattern. Many fires were deliberately set to clear land for farming, but the drought created ideal conditions for them to burn out of control. Brazil and Bolivia were among the hardest hit.

While this data reflects just a single year, scientists say it aligns with predictions of more frequent and severe tropical forest fires as global temperatures rise.

“I think we are in a new phase, where it’s not just the clearing for agriculture that’s the main driver,” said Rod Taylor of the World Resources Institute (WRI), which is also behind the latest report.

“Now we have this new amplifying effect, which is a real climate change feedback loop, where fires are just much more intense and much more ferocious than they’ve ever been.”

The loss of primary tropical forest in 2024 released an estimated 3.1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases—equivalent to the European Union’s annual emissions.

Not all regions followed this trend. In Indonesia, for instance, primary forest loss dropped by 11% compared to 2023, despite the drought. This progress was credited to coordinated efforts by governments and local communities to enforce strict “no burning” laws, according to Elizabeth Goldman, co-director of the Global Forest Watch project at the World Resources Institute.

“Indonesia serves as a bright spot in the 2024 data,” she said.

“Political will is a key factor of success – it’s impossible otherwise,” agreed Gabriel Labbate, head of climate change mitigation at the United Nations forests programme UNREDD, which was not involved in today’s report.

Other countries, like Brazil, had previously made strides in reducing deforestation but saw those gains reverse after policy shifts beginning in 2014.

Professor Hansen emphasised that such progress needs to be sustained over time to be effective.

“The key we haven’t seen yet is sustained success in reducing and maintaining low levels of conversion of these ecosystems and if you were interested in conserving the environment you have to win always and forever,” he said.

Looking ahead, researchers agree that the upcoming UN climate summit, COP30—set to take place in the Amazon—will be a pivotal moment for forest protection. Among the proposals under discussion is a system of financial incentives for countries that successfully preserve tropical forests.

While details are still being developed, experts like Rod Taylor believe the initiative holds promise.

“I think it’s an example of an innovation that addresses one of the fundamental issues that at the moment there’s more money to be made by chopping forests down than keeping them standing,” he said.

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