2024 is now “virtually certain” to become the warmest year on record, marked by unprecedented heatwaves and devastating storms, according to projections from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Global average temperatures for the year are on course to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, making 2024 the first calendar year to breach this symbolic threshold.

This alarming milestone is primarily driven by human-induced climate change, with a smaller boost from the El Niño weather pattern. Scientists view this as a stark warning of escalating climate impacts.

Temperatures during the first 11 months of 2024 have been so high that only an extraordinarily sharp drop in December could prevent a new record.

Projections indicate that 2024 will likely end up at least 1.55°C warmer than pre-industrial times, surpassing the current record of 1.48°C set just last year. This would also mark the first time a full calendar year exceeds the 1.5°C warming threshold—a symbolic level set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, where nearly 200 countries pledged to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C to avoid severe climate impacts.

However, exceeding this limit in a single year does not mean the Paris target has been permanently breached, as the agreement refers to 20-year averages to account for natural variability. Yet each yearly breach edges the world closer to crossing the 1.5°C threshold over the long term.

The UN has warned that, without stronger policies, global temperatures could rise by over 3°C this century.

Unique aspects of 2024 further amplify concern. Early-year warmth was intensified by El Niño, a natural pattern where warmer-than-usual Pacific Ocean surface waters release additional heat into the atmosphere. This El Niño phase, which began in mid-2023 and ended around April 2024, has kept temperatures exceptionally high.

While scientists anticipate the emergence of the cooler La Niña phase, which could temporarily lower global temperatures, its exact influence remains uncertain.

Even with potential cooling from La Niña, the rapid rise in greenhouse gas concentrations continues to push global temperatures upward.

Scientists warn that it’s only a matter of time before more records are broken, underlining the urgent need for transformative action to mitigate climate change and its growing impacts.

 

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