A group of leading climate scientists has issued a stark warning that many of Earth’s “vital signs” have reached record extremes, suggesting that “the future of humanity hangs in the balance.”

The report, analysing 35 critical indicators in 2023, found 25 at unprecedented levels, such as carbon dioxide concentrations and the global human population, marking a “critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis.”

According to the report, Earth’s surface and ocean temperatures hit all-time highs, largely due to record levels of fossil fuel burning. Meanwhile, the human population is growing by around 200,000 people each day, with an additional 170,000 cattle and sheep added daily, all contributing to soaring greenhouse gas emissions.

The researchers identified 28 feedback loops, including emissions from thawing permafrost, which could amplify warming and potentially set off multiple tipping points—like the destabilisation of Greenland’s vast ice sheet.

Rising global temperatures are already fuelling deadly extreme weather events, including hurricanes in the U.S. and severe 50°C heatwaves in India, leaving billions vulnerable to extreme heat.

The scientists said their goal was “to provide clear, evidence-based insights that inspire informed and bold responses from citizens to researchers and world leaders – we just want to act truthfully and tell it like it is.”

They called for urgent measures to curb human suffering by drastically reducing fossil fuel use, cutting methane emissions, limiting overconsumption by affluent populations, and encouraging a shift to plant-based diets.

“We’re already in the midst of abrupt climate upheaval, which jeopardises life on Earth like nothing humans have ever seen,” said Prof William Ripple, of Oregon State University (OSU), who co-led the group. “Ecological overshoot – taking more than the Earth can safely give – has pushed the planet into climatic conditions more threatening than anything witnessed even by our prehistoric relatives.

“Climate change has already displaced millions of people, with the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions. That would likely lead to greater geopolitical instability, possibly even partial societal collapse.”

Published in Bioscience, the assessment highlights record-breaking atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and methane, a potent greenhouse gas that’s 80 times stronger than CO2 over 20 years. Methane emissions are rising from fossil fuel extraction, waste sites, cattle, and rice paddies. Although wind and solar energy grew by 15% in 2023, fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas still dominate due to resistance from those benefiting from the current fossil fuel-based economy.

“The growth rate of methane emissions has been accelerating, which is extremely troubling,” said Dr Christopher Wolf, formerly of OSU, who co-led the team.

The report also cites a survey of hundreds of senior climate scientists conducted in May, where only 6% expressed confidence that the internationally agreed 1.5°C warming target could be met.

“The fact is that avoiding every tenth of a degree of warming is critically important,” the researchers said. “Each tenth places an extra 100 million people into unprecedented hot average temperatures.”

The scientists argue that climate change is part of a broader crisis, which also includes pollution, ecological destruction, and increasing economic inequality.

“Climate change is a glaring symptom of a deeper systemic issue: ecological overshoot, [which] is an inherently unstable state that cannot persist indefinitely. As the risk of Earth’s climate system switching to a catastrophic state rises, more and more scientists have begun to research the possibility of societal collapse. Even in the absence of global collapse, climate change could cause many millions of additional deaths by 2050. We need bold, transformative change.”

To address these challenges, the researchers urge the adoption of specific policies, including empowering women and girls through education to stabilise population growth, protecting and restoring ecosystems, rewilding, and incorporating climate change education into global curricula to enhance awareness and action. They insist that bold, immediate action is essential to mitigate the impacts of the escalating climate emergency.

The assessment concludes: “Only through decisive action can we safeguard the natural world, avert profound human suffering and ensure that future generations inherit the livable world they deserve. The future of humanity hangs in the balance.”

 

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