The area of land affected by extreme drought has tripled since the 1980s, according to a new report on climate change’s escalating effects.

The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change revealed that nearly half (48%) of Earth’s land surface experienced at least one month of extreme drought in 2023, compared to just 15% in the 1980s.

Even more alarmingly, 30% of the planet endured extreme drought lasting three months or longer, a stark increase from the 5% average in the 1980s.

Extreme drought is defined by at least six months of very low rainfall, high evaporation levels, or both. These conditions pose significant risks to water availability, food security, public health, energy supplies, and infrastructure.

The study highlights how quickly drought is intensifying, with regions like South America, the Middle East, and the Horn of Africa bearing the brunt.

In South America, for example, the Amazon rainforest is experiencing severe drought that threatens its ability to regulate regional weather patterns. Trees in the Amazon play a critical role in forming rainclouds; their death disrupts rainfall cycles, creating a self-perpetuating loop of worsening drought.

Paradoxically, while large swathes of land dry out, extreme rainfall has also become more frequent. Over the past decade, 61% of the world experienced increased extreme rainfall compared to averages from 1961–1990. This dual phenomenon—more intense droughts and heavier rainfall—is tied to global warming’s complex impacts on water cycles.

Hotter temperatures increase water evaporation from soil, intensifying dry spells. Simultaneously, warming oceans and air hold more moisture, which can lead to heavier rain when storms form. These shifts disrupt traditional weather patterns, creating cascading effects on ecosystems and communities.

The Lancet Countdown report underscores the escalating health consequences of climate change.

In 2023, an additional 151 million people faced food insecurity due to drought, with malnutrition rates rising globally. Heat-related deaths among older adults have surged by 167% since the 1990s.

Rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns have also expanded the range of mosquito-borne diseases like dengue fever, malaria, and West Nile virus, which now affect regions previously untouched.

Dust storms, exacerbated by drought, contribute to dangerous air pollution, while extreme water scarcity disrupts daily life in vulnerable regions.

“The climate is changing fast,” says Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown.

“It is changing to conditions that we are not used to and that we did not design our systems to work around.”

In Hasakah, Syria, a prolonged agricultural drought has left over a million people without access to clean water.

“Twenty years ago, water used to flow into the Khabor River but this river has been dried for many years because there is no rain,” says Osman Gaddo, the Head of Water Testing, Hasakah City Water Board. “People have no access to fresh water.”

Residents often resort to digging polluted wells, leading to widespread illnesses like skin diseases and diarrhoea. The city’s primary water supply, drawn from wells 25 kilometres away, is also running dry, and fuel shortages hinder water extraction.

“People are ready to kill their neighbour for water,” one resident said. “People are going thirsty every day.”

Similarly, South Sudan faces a dire combination of drought and flooding. In 2023, 77% of the country experienced at least one month of drought, with half enduring six months of extreme dryness. At the same time, over 700,000 people were affected by floods.

This dual threat devastates livelihoods, as rivers and lakes dry up during droughts, hardening soil. When heavy rains follow, water runs off instead of soaking into the ground, causing flash floods.

For residents like Nyakuma in South Sudan, these overlapping crises are life-altering.

“Things are deteriorating,” says village elder, Nyakuma. “When we go in the water, we get sick. And the food we eat isn’t nutritious enough”.

Malaria, fuelled by standing water from floods, has infected her twice in just a few months.

After losing her family’s cattle herd to flooding, she now relies on government aid and foraging.

“Eating this is like eating mud,” says Sunday, Nyakuma’s husband, as he searches floodwater for the roots of waterlillies.

The feedback loops of drought and flooding are reminders of climate change’s accelerating consequences. Without decisive action to curb greenhouse gas emissions and stabilise global temperatures, these extreme weather patterns will intensify.

“Plants can adapt to extreme drought, to an extent anyway, but flooding really disrupts their physiology,” adds Romanello. “It is really bad for food security and the agricultural sector.”

The report coincides with 2024 being predicted the hottest year on record, emphasising the urgent need for coordinated global efforts to mitigate climate impacts.

Reducing emissions and investing in climate adaptation are crucial to preventing further destruction of ecosystems and ensuring the survival of communities already pushed to their limits.

“At the moment, we are still in a position to just about adapt to the changes in the climate. But it is going to get to a point where we will reach the limit of our capacity. Then we will see a lot of unavoidable impacts,” says Romanello.

“The higher we allow the global temperature to go, the worse things are going to be”.

 

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