The UN’s latest Emissions Gap report warns that the world could warm by a staggering 3.1°C by the end of this century if only “current policies” are followed.

This level of warming would have catastrophic consequences, intensifying extreme weather events like heatwaves, floods, and storms. A warming of this magnitude would make outdoor work challenging or even impossible in many areas.

However, this projection of 3.1°C warming isn’t entirely new.

For the past three years, since the COP26 summit in Glasgow, global warming predictions have remained relatively consistent. The 2021 IPCC report also projected a similar rise, up to 3.6°C under high-emission scenarios.

The new report says: “A continuation of current policies is estimated to limit global warming to a maximum of 3.1C (range 1.9-3.8C) over the course of the century.”

In the new report, the UN notes that if countries fully implement their current carbon reduction pledges, global temperatures could increase by 2.6°C to 2.8°C. If every country adheres to its net-zero commitments, warming could potentially be limited to around 1.9°C.

While limiting warming to 1.9°C is better than higher projections, it would still have significant impacts. With the Earth already warmed by 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, we are seeing severe effects, including more extreme weather and rising sea levels.

The lack of significant progress in temperature projections has frustrated UN officials, especially since recent climate conferences, COP27 and COP28, saw ambitious promises but limited action.

The UN now fears that the Paris Agreement targets—to keep global warming under 2°C, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C—are in serious jeopardy. If emissions aren’t significantly reduced by then, scientists warn that the likelihood of severe warming around or above 3°C will increase.

These upcoming plans, known as nationally determined contributions, are seen as crucial. The UN’s climate chief describes them as among the most important documents of the century, urging leaders to use this report as a motivator for greater action.

The report also highlights new factors contributing to emissions. A 19.5% increase in aviation-related carbon emissions occurred in 2023 as travel neared pre-pandemic levels. Road transport emissions rose as well, and rising temperatures—worsened by climate change—have driven greater use of air conditioning, further increasing energy demand.

“We are seeing or starting to see more severe impacts of climate change, so heat waves have driven up energy demand for cooling of homes and offices,” said Dr Anne Olhoff, from UNEP.

“They have also impacted the hydropower generation, which has gone down. And what do you then do when it goes down? You switch to more coal.”

Additionally, the transition to electric vehicles and heat pumps has added to electricity demand, which, in many places, is still largely powered by fossil fuels. While these shifts are part of the move toward cleaner energy, they underscore the urgent need for faster transitions to renewable energy sources to prevent backsliding on climate goals.

The UN’s report underscores the need for immediate, coordinated action to prevent catastrophic warming. The hope is that world leaders will respond to this latest call to action by setting—and meeting—more ambitious climate targets.

 

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