Reconstructing the buildings destroyed in the first four months of the Israeli assault will generate nearly 60 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, according to a new study.

This carbon cost of rebuilding Gaza exceeds the annual greenhouse gas emissions of 135 countries, worsening the global climate crisis on top of the devastating death toll.

The estimated reconstruction of 200,000 apartment buildings, schools, universities, hospitals, mosques, bakeries, water, and sewage plants damaged or destroyed by Israel will generate up to 60 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). This is comparable to the total 2022 emissions of countries like Portugal and Sweden and more than twice the annual emissions of Afghanistan.

Long-term reconstruction represents the largest carbon cost of the war on Gaza, where Israel has killed over 36,500 Palestinians, primarily women and children, with thousands more presumed dead under the rubble. Around 26 million tons of debris remain from Israel’s bombardment, requiring years to clear.

Research published on the Social Science Research Network reveals:

• The emissions from aerial and ground attacks during the first 120 days of the war were greater than the annual carbon footprint of 26 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations, including Vanuatu and Greenland.
• Over 99% of the estimated 652,552 metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent generated in the first four months post-Hamas attack on October 7 are linked to Israel’s aerial bombardment and ground invasion.
• Almost 30% of total CO2e emissions came from 244 American cargo planes flying bombs, munitions, and other military supplies to Israel in the first 120 days.
• The carbon cost of Israel’s assault on Gaza in the first 120 days was equivalent to the combined annual energy use of 77,200 American households.

The analysis, shared exclusively with the Guardian, provides a conservative estimate of the climate cost of the current war on Gaza, in addition to the unprecedented killings, deliberate famine, infrastructure damage, and environmental catastrophe. It highlights the asymmetry of war machinery on each side:

• Hamas rockets fired into Israel between October 2023 and February 2024 generated an estimated 1,140 tCO2e. Another 2,700 tCO2e were from fuel stored by the group before October 7. Combined, the Hamas carbon footprint over the first 120 days equaled the annual energy use of 454 American homes.

“While the world’s attention is rightly focused on the humanitarian catastrophe, the climate consequences of this conflict are also catastrophic,” said Ben Neimark, a senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) and co-author of the research. “Yet our study is only a snapshot accounting for the major reported greenhouse gas emissions from the war machine in the first 120 days.”

“One of the serious consequences of the war in Gaza has been the massive violation of the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment … which represent a serious risk to life and the enjoyment of all other rights,” said Astrid Puentes, the new UN special rapporteur on human rights and the environment. “The region is already experiencing serious climate impacts that could get even worse.”

The study includes emissions from bombing, reconnaissance flights, tanks, and other vehicles, as well as manufacturing and exploding bombs, artillery, and rockets. For the first time, researchers calculated emissions from trucks delivering humanitarian aid from Egypt to Gaza.

About 1,400 trucks permitted by Israel generated almost 9,000 tonnes of CO2e. An additional 58,000 CO2e emissions came from diesel-powered generators now used to produce electricity in Gaza after Israel damaged or destroyed the enclave’s solar facilities and power plant.

“Quite apart from the unspeakable destruction in Gaza and across Palestine, this report lays bare the hypocrisy of western nations who moralize about the perils of climate breakdown and the responsibility of every nation to protect the planet – all the while funding, aiding and enabling the Israeli regime’s catastrophic war and its implications for those affected by ongoing and future climate change,” said Zena Agha, policy analyst at Al-Shabaka, the Palestinian Policy Network, who writes about the climate crisis and the Israeli occupation.

The research omits emissions from flights bringing aid to neighbouring countries for onward delivery to Gaza, methane emissions, conflict-related fires, and the forced displacement of millions of Palestinians due to missing data. It also excludes shipping emissions from transporting military jet fuel from the US to Israel.

The Israeli government did not respond to requests for comment on the research.

“As long as this war continues, the implications will be exacerbated with horrific consequences on emissions, climate change and hindering climate action in Gaza,” said Hadeel Ikhmais, head of the climate change office at the Palestinian Environmental Quality Authority. According to Ikhmais, the biggest existential threat facing Palestinians before Israel’s alleged “acts of genocide” was the climate crisis with rising sea level, extreme heat, erratic rains and drought all posing serious and cumulative threats.

Despite growing concerns about the environmental and climate consequences of wars and occupations, military emissions remain opaque and are rarely accounted for.

Thanks to US pressure, reporting military emissions to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) remains voluntary. Only four countries submit some incomplete data to the UNFCCC, which organises annual climate-action talks. A recent study found that militaries account for almost 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions annually – more than the aviation and shipping industries combined and higher than any country except the US, China, and India. Neither Israel nor Palestinian authorities appear to have reported military emissions to the UNFCCC.

The new study estimates Israel’s baseline 2023 military carbon footprint – excluding warfare – at 3.85 million tCO2e, about 5% of Israel’s annual emissions and double the 2022 CO2e emissions of the Bahamas. No comparable military emissions could be calculated for Palestine due to Hamas’s ad hoc capabilities.

To capture some climate consequences of the militarised setting, researchers calculated the carbon footprint of conflict-related concrete infrastructure in Gaza and Israel. The Gaza Metro, a 500km underground tunnel network, generated an estimated 478,800 tCO2e, more than Saint Lucia’s 2022 emissions. Building Israel’s iron wall along its Gaza border added 312,387 tCO2e, more than Tonga’s total emissions.

The analysis does not account for pre-October 7 emissions from Israeli tanks, military vehicles, and soldiers active in historic Palestine or the full energy costs of importing billions of dollars in weapons, fuel, and equipment yearly. The carbon snapshot underscores the need for greater accountability of military emissions amid rising calls for transparency.

“The figures show how significant the emissions from conflicts can be, yet there is no agreed international methodology on how to estimate these emissions, and as a result they are being overlooked,” said Linsey Cottrell, environmental policy officer at the Conflict and Environment Observatory and co-author of the new study. “It’s vital that the carbon costs of war are counted alongside their wider humanitarian and environmental consequences.”

 

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