Global Heat Records Likely to Fall in Coming Years, WMO Warns

There is an 80% chance that the world will set at least one new annual temperature record within the next five years, significantly increasing the likelihood of extreme droughts, floods, and wildfires, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) .

For the first time, the data also reveals a small but notable chance that a single year before 2030 could be 2°C warmer than pre-industrial levels — a possibility scientists described as “shocking.”

The warning comes in the wake of the hottest decade ever recorded and highlights the intensifying risks to public health, economies, and ecosystems unless greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation are drastically reduced.

The WMO’s latest climate update, which combines recent weather observations with long-term climate projections, estimates a 70% probability that the average global temperature from 2025 to 2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit is based on a 20-year average, even a five-year breach signals escalating climate threats.

The report also finds an 86% chance that the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded in at least one of the next five years — a dramatic rise from 40% in the WMO’s 2020 assessment.

In 2024, global temperatures surpassed the 1.5°C mark for a full year for the first time — a scenario once deemed unlikely in earlier predictions. Last year also marked the hottest in the 175-year instrumental record.

Strikingly, the new analysis introduces a 1% chance that global temperatures could reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels before 2030. This would require an unusual alignment of warming factors, including a strong El Niño and a positive Arctic Oscillation. Though still unlikely, this scenario was once considered virtually impossible in the near term.

“It is shocking that 2C is plausible,” said Adam Scaife of the Met Office, which played a leading role in compiling the data. “It has come out as only 1% in the next five years but the probability will increase as the climate warms.”

Not all regions will be affected equally. The Arctic is expected to warm 3.5 times faster than the global average, due in part to declining sea ice, which reduces the Earth’s ability to reflect solar heat. Meanwhile, the Amazon faces worsening droughts, and regions including South Asia, the Sahel, and northern Europe — the UK among them — are likely to experience more intense rainfall.

Leon Hermanson of the UK Met Office, who led the report’s production, said 2025 is likely to be one of the top three hottest years ever recorded.

Chris Hewitt, WMO director of climate services, called the findings “deeply concerning,” particularly for human health, but stressed that reducing fossil fuel emissions can still help limit future warming.

“We must take climate action,” he said. “1.5C is not inevitable.”